NFL Week 17 Predictions
This is the final week of the regular season, and while it’s been tough at some points, it will be tougher to see it go. Divisional games saturate the board this week, with tons of games with a playoff impact, while others are meaningless. That still doesn’t mean we can’t make a profit off the lines. Here are the best bets from this tough to cap final week.
NFL Odds Week 17
We had another winning week last time, going 4-3. We won with Green Bay, Washington, Baltimore, and a single point cover with Houston. We lost with the Lions, who got trounced by Dallas, the Broncos, and a surprising San Diego loss to the Browns! The sharps finally cashed on them, but as for us, we take our winnings and move on to this week.
Week 17 NFL Predictions
We have 8 games for you this week. The New England Patriots, fighting for home field in the playoffs, takes on the Dolphins, the Bears face the struggling Vikings, the Broncos host the Raiders, the Packers and Lions put it all on the line in Detroit, Houston visits Tennessee, the Seahawks attempt to get a first round bye over their favorite opponents, the 49ers, the Ryan-less Bills take on the ‘Ryan-less for longer’ Jets, and the unfortunate Cardinals will be taking on the even more unfortunate Los Angeles Rams. Let’s get into it!
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Prediction
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -9.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Last season, the New England Patriots lost home field advantage in the postseason with a loss in Miami. Don’t think Bill Belichick doesn’t remember. They are playing for the same goal this time, but with this elite Pats team, it shouldn’t even matter. They are just as good on the road, and are going for a perfect road record this Sunday. Winning 6 straight games, they are now 13-2 (10-1 since Brady’s return).
They faced the Dolphins in Week 2, and covered, and we’ll most likely see a repeat of that. Belichick stated he won’t be resting players, but even if he does, the Pats are just the team to still beat you down even with their second and third stringers. And do you know Brady’s record against his AFC East division rivals? 70-18. ‘Nuff said. While this doesn’t take spread into account, the favorite is still 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The Miami Dolphins are playing to get 5th seed in the Conference, so they would play a shaky Houston instead of a revitalized Pittsburgh. They would need to win, and hope for a Chiefs loss for that scenario to come to fruition. After their 1-4 start, the Phins are actually no slouches at home, winning their last 5 in Miami, and only losing 1 game all season. Matt Moore has stepped up to replace Ryan Tannehill, but has been great, with 6 TDs to 2 INTs. If they were against any other team, we would say take the Dolphins, but the Patriots will not let last year repeat itself. They will just find a way to win and cover. Take the New England Patriots at -9.5.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Prediction
BET CHICAGO BEARS +5.5 AT BET365. There’s nowhere the Chicago Bears can go but up. Sitting at 3-12, they have the luxury of being able to experiment, change strategies, and play different potential stars. With a last ranked turnover differential of -16, with only 10 takeaways, it can’t get much worse than that. Sure, they aren’t handling the ball as well as other teams, but turnovers are difficult to cap. When something is difficult to cap, it is usually random to some extent, which is the case with this differential.The Bears will most likely revert to the mean and play a decent game this week. They certainly aren’t playing an elite team, and even beat them in their last encounter.
The Bears will most likely revert to the mean and play a decent game this week. They certainly aren’t playing an elite team, and even beat them in their last encounter.
The Minnesota Vikings did have hopes for a playoff run, but after starting the season at 5-0, are now a below average 7-8, with their postseason hopes lost in the snow. Their defense, which was once their major strength, has allowed 72 points in the last 2 games. There is nothing to warrant this team laying 5.5 points against a team that has already beaten them, and psychologically, is in a better place than them. Furthermore, the Vikings are a terrible 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against rivals in the NFC North, while the Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against division opponents. Take the Chicago Bears at +5.5.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Prediction
BET OAKLAND RAIDERS +1.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The Oakland Raiders have relied on QB Derek Carr all year, but after breaking his leg last week, backup Matt McGloin is getting the start on Sunday. He hasn’t started a game since 2013, but did hold his own after replacing Carr last game. The Raiders know they are in the postseason, but need either a win here, or a Kansas City loss, to get a first round bye. If they lose at Denver and the Chiefs win, they won’t get the bye, but are still in good shape. Oakland beat the Broncos 30-20 in their first game against each other, and with RB Latavius Murray rushing for 114 yards, it’s clear they can take them on without Carr.
Trevor Siemian will be starting for the Denver Broncos, but coach Gary Kubiak says he will also give first round draft pick Paxton Lynch some time. After starting the season 7-3, they have lost 4 out of 5, and are out of playoff contention as of last week’s loss. While they aren’t playing for anything meaningful, they shoud still be at around a PK, not favored here. At 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC West, it’s clear Oakland has the advantage. The Raiders are also a stunning 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing over 350 yards in their last game. Even though Carr is out, Oakland has a multitude of other weapons to put up points against these fallen Super Bowl champs. Take the Oakland Raiders at +1.5.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Prediction
BET GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 AT BET365. With the Green Bay Packers sitting at 4-6, Aaron Rodgers proclaimed that they would run the table and make the playoffs. After going undefeated since that, it could all be for naught with a loss here at Detroit. Both teams have a 9-6 record in the NFC North. Simply enough, the winner takes the division. The loser will be at the mercy of the Washington Redskins, who play earlier on Sunday. With a Redskins loss, the loser of this game will get a Wild Card spot. At this point, it’s looking like the Pack has all the momentum, winning their last 5 in a row, with Rodgers throwing a stunning 14 TDs with 0 INTs in his last 6. WR Jordy Nelson has been phenomenal as well, with 38 catches for 528 yards and 5 TDs during their streak. He also had 2 TDs against the Lions in the first game between these teams this season.
Detroit Lions‘ QB Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the same since ligament injury in his hand. They did lose to Dallas on the road by a fair margin, but Dallas is an elite team. Now the Lions are at home, and while they have won their last 6 in Detroit, they have each been by 4th quarter comebacks. It isn’t any way to win games, and could be inflating their record. While they did have a good season, there are only so many times a team can be clutch, and their luck seems to have run out. They could still salvage a first round bye in the playoffs if they win here at home, and both the Falcons and Seahawks lose, so while faltering, they are still in good shape, and could have given it a good run if Stafford’s injury didn’t happen.
Trends heavily favor the Packers, as they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games against Detroit, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road in Detroit. The favorite is also 8-1 ATS in the last 9 between these teams. The Packers have also been shown to dominate this division year after year, even ATS, as they are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 against the NFC North, while the Lions are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against their divisional rivals. Only laying 3 is as good as it gets, so pounce on this before it gets bet too high. We know the Lions can keep it close. Take the Green Bay Packers at -3.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Prediction
BET TENNESSEE TITANS -3 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Houston Texans QB Tom Savage will be looking for clinched the division last week, so it’s easy to see he’s already more loved than Brock Osweiler in the Lone Star State. The 9-6 Texans can look to rest players this week, as even a loss against their division rivals won’t mean anything.
If the game was at home, the outcome would be different, but on the road, there isn’t much motivation to play at the maximum, with the postseason right around the corner. They do have an incredible 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 against divisional rivals, but this situation, being the last game of the season, and without meaning, that record is moot.
Similarly, the Tennessee Titans won’t have anything to play for either, as they were eliminated from the playoffs last week because of a loss to the 3-12 Jacksonville Jaguars, of all teams. Marcus Mariota was severely injured during the game, ending his season, but Matt Cassel was there as backup to go through the motions. With a week to prepare, Cassel should be more ready to showcase himself in front of the home crowd. Not only is the home factor a motivator, but after finishing the last two seasons with 14 and 13 losses, a win here could give the 8-7 Titans their first winning season in 5 years.
DeMarco Murray will for sure see a lot of the ball, as he is trying to finish the season as leading AFC rusher. He currently has 1266 yards on the season, and with Cassel just making his first start against a tough pass defense, look for Murray to make some runs. The motivation factors all add up to the Titans taking this by at least 4. Plus, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 between these teams. Take the Tennessee Titans at -3.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Prediction
BET SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +10 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The Seattle Seahawks will be licking their chops…err… beaks at the prospect of sealing a first round playoff bye this weekend. They are playing a team they dominate, having beaten them the last 6 times in a row. Winners of the NFC West, they need to both win, and have Atlanta lose (or tie), to be able to get a bye. While more unlikely, if Seattle ties San Francisco, they would need Atlanta to lose, and the Green Bay – Detroit game to tie to get their bye. The Seahawks even stomp the Niners ATS, having gone 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 against them, and having gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 in San Fran.
The San Francisco 49ers could get a number 1 draft pick if they lose here, and the Browns get an unlikely win over Pittsburgh. They rallied last week in epic fashion against the Rams to get a rare win. It came after going 13 weeks straight without one, the longest in franchise history. With Colin Kaepernick’s seeming departure from the team after this season, and probably coach Chip Kelly as well, everything is screaming to take the Seahawks. This is one game though, where the impossible can happen. We see this situation often, and we always seem surprised.
The 49ers are more than likely to cover, as the Hawks won’t be running up the score on the last game. Look for a backdoor cover here, or even a straight up Niners win. 10 points is too much to give up in this spot. Take the San Francisco 49ers at +10.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Prediction
BET NEW YORK JETS +3.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. This line has already shifted numerous points with the news of Tyrod Taylor being benched for the Buffalo Bills in favor of E.J. Manuel, and with the sacking of the Ryan brothers as coaches. The 7-8 Bills are missing the playoffs yet again, pushing it to a 17 years without a postseason appearance, a record in American major league sports. Interim head coach, Anthony Lynn, used to work for the Jets when Rex Ryan was heading them, and is now replacing him for this final game on a different team. While their rush offense is much improved after Lynn’s promotion within the team, their defense is still a problem. Not only that, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against AFC East division rivals.
The New York Jets are certainly nothing special, but against an ailing team on the road, getting over 3 points here could make the difference. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be starting again, and he knows he needs to make an impact so he can be the team’s main starter even after Bryce Petty gets healthy again. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 between these teams, so every point counts. The Jets should be able to get the win, or at least cover here, with Taylor not playing and Buffalo’s coaching problems. Take the New York Jets at +3.5.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams Prediction
BET LOS ANGELES RAMS +6 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. This disappointing Arizona Cardinals team will at least try to end the season at 7-8-1, which is still a far cry from the 10+ wins which were expected of them. While talented, it was their special teams which essentially destroyed their season, losing 3 games because of missed kicks. They have a top 5 defense, and their offense is in the better half of the league, but they just couldn’t produce the desired result. With RB David Johnson, potential MVP, it makes the season even more disappointing. Johnson is the only player in league history to have run for more than 100 in his first 15 games.
He is also the first player in franchise history to collect over 2000 rushing yards in a regular season. With 33 TDs in 31 career games, it’s a shame the Cardinals couldn’t keep their special teams in check, so we could see what is a talented core of players in the playoffs. Most likely, look for them to have lost motivation for this game.
The Los Angeles Rams are also a disappointment but in a different way. They are looking to finish the season at 5-11. With an offense ranked last in the league, they are only scoring 14.5 points per game. They have been giving up tons of points in recent weeks, after being stingy to start off the season. This could bode badly for an 18th ranked rush defense going up against the Cardinals’ Johnson. As the game is meaningless, it is tough to take the favorite laying that many points. If Johnson gets to run at will, it will still be a low scoring game, and the Rams should be able to keep it close. The underdog is after all 7-3 ATS in the last 10 between these teams. The Cardinals are also only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The motivation factor (or lack of it for Arizona), will be what keeps this game close. Take the Los Angeles Rams at +6.
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