MLB Picks and Parlays July 4
MLB Baseball Games Today
Happy 4th of July, America! Get ready for a full day of the country’s favorite pastime. It all kicks off with an early game from the nation’s capital at 11:05am ET. Your Toronto Blue Jays, currently in a freefall, will try to spoil festivities in New York as well.
Our picks on Canada Day went 1-2. We had a tough loss with Oakland, who rallied to tie the game late, but then squander it in the 9th to lose by 1. Colorado was also disappointing, but as a large dog, we took the chance on the value. Our win was an easy 7-1 away win by the Red Sox over the Jays.
On this holiday, we have another 3 games lined up for you guys. The Pirates are taking on the Phillies in the afternoon, then an outmatched Padres team goes against the Indians later on. Our last game will be Cincinnati versus the Rockies, who should be glad to be back home. Let’s get into it!
MLB Picks Today – July 04, 2017
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: *Phillies (+140) at Sports Interaction
These two teams clashed on Monday, with the Phillies shutting out their in-state rivals for a 4-0 win. After Freddy Galvis’ 2 run homer in that game, he’s improved to 6 for 16 against the Bucs this year. Maikel Franco has the same numbers agaisnt them. Pittsburgh is in a bad spot here, as they’ve lost their last 4, and are 2-5 in their last 7 at Philly.
Jameson Taillon (4-2, 2.97 ERA) has been playing better for the Pirates though. He shut out the Rays in his last start, throwing over 6 innings, and seems to be improving after his surgery. His last start against the Phils was in 2016, where he allowed 4 runs in a no decision. Mark Leiter (1-0, 4.20 ERA) struggled in his last start for the Philadelphia Phillies, but his team gave him late run support to earn him a no decision.
The Phillies are definitely in a worse situation when you take the entire season into account. They have the worst record in the MLB, and have a much worse recent record against the Pirates. At home, with Leiter on the mound today though, they have a decent shot as an underdog in this spot, especially when you factor in recent form. Take the Phillies here at plus money.
- San Diego Padres at Cleveland Indians: *Indians (-340) at BODOG
It you think you’ve seen high lines before, this one should still shock you. This will be the first of a three game interleague set. It’s marks the start of the Padres’ road trip and the Indians wish to shut them down, and get their 3rd win in a row to cement their place as 1st in the AL Central.
Trevor Cahill (3-2, 3.27 ERA) has been great for the Friars. They’ve gone 4-1 in his last 5 starts. The problem is their road presence. Going 23-55 in their last 78 road games isn’t going to help Cahill much. During his tenure with the A’s, the right hander is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA against the Cleveland Indians.
Corey Kluber (7-2, 3.02 ERA) has been even better recently for Cleveland. The ace has recorded at least 10 strikeouts in each of his last 4 starts, and 6 out of his last 8. He’s only allowed a single ER in his last 24 IP. Going further back, the Indians are 47-22 in Kluber’s last 69 home starts. Against the Pads, he’s 1-0, but his interleague record is a stunning 11-3 with a 2.35 ERA. It won’t be a blowout by any means, but this price still merits taking the Indians here.
- Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies: *Reds +1.5 (-130) at Sports Interaction
The Rockies desperately needed that win on Monday against the Cincinnati Reds. Coming back from a horrendous 1-8 road trip, and having CarGo return to the lineup, you’d think they would Rock the Reds, but they came out of it with a mediocre 5-3 win. CarGo is clearly not himself yet, going 0 for 4.
Fading Homer Bailey (0-2, 27.00 ERA) is a legitimate strategy in many circles, but we’ll avoid doing that. With an ERA that high, it’s only natural for pitchers to regress towards the mean. He’s 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA in 7 starts against Colorado. Kyle Freeland (8-6, 3.84 ERA) is 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA at home.
Despite every trend, and every stat going against Cincy and Bailey tonight, money has been pouring on them. The Rockies might need a couple more games at Coors to be able to get back into winning shape. They haven’t been impressive in their 2 wins in their last 10 games, and while they might win this, the value is on the Reds on the RL. Bailey won’t be as bad.
As usual, we’ll put our picks into a parlay to multiply our value! If you’re only into 2 teamers, then leave out the Reds. While not likely, they might lose by 2 again. We’ll take Philly on the RL as well. The 3 teamer pays +298 at Sports Interaction, so get on this now before the lines move!
- *Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-125)
- *Cleveland Indians (-370)
- *Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-135)
Do you agree with our picks? Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
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