Tue 13/12/2016 - 11:04 EST

Champions League Knockout Round Betting Preview

Champions League Knockout Round Betting Preview
The first knockout fixtures for the UEFA Champions League were decided. The fixtures won't take place until the middle of February, but let's take a look at early betting lines and recap the group stage.

Champions League Futures 2017

Post Draw here are the WILLIAM HILL odds for the competition Outright:

Champions League outright odds -WH

SportsInteraction’s lines for Champions League betting are currently closed. In any case, I would not advise placing bets today for events two months in the future. Prior to placing any futures bet do some shopping around on the big sites. 

If you want to bet Barcelona or Bayern Munich to win the whole thing BET365 will be your best spot for those 2 teams.

The only long shot that I would consider betting on is AS Monaco and both BET365 and BODOG are offering them that +10000 or 100/1.

If those odds hold I will most likely dabble on them in the next couple of months, assuming they keep up their fantastic run of form. Particularly given their knockout round opponent.

Champions League Knockout Round Preview

AS Monaco, who do nothing but win games against clubs who are thought to be better than them, have drawn Manchester City who does nothing but lose to clubs who they are supposed to be better than.

If these 2 teams were playing next week and you gave me Monaco at +225 I would bite your hand off. But experience has taught me to wait it out. Much can happen in the next 60 days and there is no need to impulse buy anything; save that for Boxing Day.

But right now I like the Ligue 1 side over Man City. For one, Pep continues to have a poor record away from home in the Champions League. This year his side were 0-2-1 away from the Etihad with a -4 goal differential in the group. And the inability to keep clean sheets are what can ultimately lead to your demise as away goals are so precious.

Round of 16 odds to advance on BET365

Round of 16 on BET365

Here are some of my initial thoughts on the remaining ties:

Benfica vs Dortmund: If the over 2.5 is not too heavily juiced I will bet it with confidence. In 12 combined group stage games, these 2 sides’ matches had 50 goals

PSG vs Barcelona: Au revoir PSG, you choked away the group and now you can focus on pissing away Ligue 1. Your only hope is that Barca suffer an injury crisis

Real Madrid vs Napoli: Last season Madrid won both rounds of 16 legs vs Italian side Roma 2-0. 45 goals were scored in these two sides’ 12 group stage matches

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: If this were the stock market, Arsenal’s green arrow would be pointing up and Bayern’s red arrow would be pointing down. Too early to call this one.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Atletico Madrid: No team not named Real Madrid has eliminated Atleti from this competition in the last 3 seasons. At -400, the oddsmakers are well aware of this.

FC Porto vs Juventus: Maybe a little feeler bet on Porto to advance. If one big side is going to flop it’s Juve. They are money in Serie A but recent history has seen them underperform in Europe. 

Sevilla vs Leicester: Other than AS Monaco, Sevilla is the only other dark horse that I would back to make a deep run in this competition. Having won 3 straight Europa Leagues makes them experts at this competition structure.

Group Stage Recap

When group C was initially drawn (Barca, Man City, Celtic, Gladbach), I was very vocal about how high scoring it would be. 6 of the 12 games went over 3.5 goals but Over 2.5 goals only went 7-5 in this group.

Rather it was the group F with Real Madrid and Dortmund that set a Champions League record for most goals in a group stage with 51. Over 2.5 goals went 9-3 in Group F’s matches.

Dinamo Zagreb lost all 6 matches, scored 0 goals and conceded 15. But I wouldn’t bother mentioning that to any of your Croatian buddies.

Tottenham were probably the biggest disappointment for my money. Especially since we have seen how high their ceiling is, you would have wanted to see them at their best against a Barcelona or Bayern Munich.

I could spend a couple paragraphs crapping all over PSG but instead, let’s end this discussion with the little engine that could.

Champions League
Champions League
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# team pts P W D L GF GA +/-
Group stage - Group A
1 Arsenal Arsenal 14 6 4 2 0 18 6 12
2 PSG PSG 12 6 3 3 0 13 7 6
3 Ludogorets Razgrad Ludogorets Razgrad 3 6 0 3 3 6 15 -9
4 Basel Basel 2 6 0 2 4 3 12 -9
Group stage - Group B
1 Napoli Napoli 11 6 3 2 1 11 8 3
2 Benfica Benfica 8 6 2 2 2 10 10 0
3 Besiktas Besiktas 7 6 1 4 1 9 14 -5
4 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 5 6 1 2 3 8 6 2
Group stage - Group C
1 Barcelona Barcelona 15 6 5 0 1 20 4 16
2 Manchester City Manchester City 9 6 2 3 1 12 10 2
3 Monchengladbach Monchengladbach 5 6 1 2 3 5 12 -7
4 Celtic Celtic 3 6 0 3 3 5 16 -11
Group stage - Group D
1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 15 6 5 0 1 7 2 5
2 Bayern Munich Bayern Munich 12 6 4 0 2 14 6 8
3 FK Rostov FK Rostov 5 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6
4 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2 6 0 2 4 4 11 -7
Group stage - Group E
1 Monaco Monaco 11 6 3 2 1 9 7 2
2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 10 6 2 4 0 8 4 4
3 Tottenham Tottenham 7 6 2 1 3 6 6 0
4 CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow 3 6 0 3 3 5 11 -6
Group stage - Group F
1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 14 6 4 2 0 21 9 12
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 12 6 3 3 0 16 10 6
3 Legia Legia 4 6 1 1 4 9 24 -15
4 Sporting Sporting 3 6 1 0 5 5 8 -3
Group stage - Group G
1 Leicester Leicester 13 6 4 1 1 7 6 1
2 FC Porto FC Porto 11 6 3 2 1 9 3 6
3 Copenhagen Copenhagen 9 6 2 3 1 7 2 5
4 Club Bruges Club Bruges 0 6 0 0 6 2 14 -12
Group stage - Group H
1 Juventus Juventus 14 6 4 2 0 11 2 9
2 Sevilla Sevilla 11 6 3 2 1 7 3 4
3 Lyon Lyon 8 6 2 2 2 5 3 2
4 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 6 0 0 6 0 15 -15

Ludogorets: Bulgarian for value - this team has a place in my heart now. A couple of seasons ago they gave Real Madrid all they could handle. This season they jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Arsenal and drew PSG at the Parc des Princes. I want them in every Champions League from now on. I want them drawn in a group with big name teams and then I want to bet them to win at +1200. When they score first it will be hedge city.

For up to date pick and all things footy you can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Arsenal , Barcelona , Bayern Munich , Manchester City , real madrid , uefa champions league

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