Tue 05/07/2016 - 10:02 EDT

2016 AL East Outright Odds And Prediction

2016 AL East Outright Odds And Prediction
The AL East has become a tight three-team race between the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, and Boston Red Sox. Only one of them will come out ahead in the end, and you can find out who we believe it will be below.

With only a handful of games remaining before the Major League Baseball All-Star break, the MLB AL East division title odds have become a clear three-team race between Baltimore, Boston, and Toronto. The other two teams include the New York Yankees – who still have an outside shot at making noise in the second half to claim the crown, but they’d need to go on quite a second half run to do so, and Tampa Bay Rays who is likely already making plans to sell off some assets and get next year’s plan in motion.

MLB AL East Division Title Odds

MLB AL East Division Title Odds

Thus, the MLB AL East will be won by either the Baltimore Orioles (+145), Boston Red Sox (+200), or the defending champion Toronto Blue Jays (+200). 

The Toronto Blue Jays have been in third place for most of the year as they haven’t been able to piece together consistent results from their bullpen or offence. Those two things tend to be a problem in this division with the majority of the rivals mashing balls all around the yard on a nightly basis. Toronto used their explosive lineup last year to go on a second-half tear and claim the division, but there appears to be a few more issues to contend with this year.

Toronto still has the reigning MVP in 3B Josh Donaldson, and 1b/DH Edwin Encarnacion has been leading all of baseball in RBI’s for a few weeks now. If this team starts to put up crooked numbers on opponents like they did in 2015, the 3-4 game deficit they are currently facing in the AL East standings can be made up quickly. However, Toronto still has trouble keeping their opponents off the scoreboard, especially with a bullpen that is arguably the worst in MLB among contenders.

MLB - Regular
Tuesday 05 July
Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays

  Money Line  

That is a huge concern for this organization and it will likely end up being their downfall in late-September when the stakes are higher and you are going to see many more close games. At +200 or so, I just don’t see much value in backing the Jays to repeat as AL East Champs; especially when we’ve only seen one team repeat in this division since the 2007 season (Yankees, 2011-12). That leaves the Orioles (+145) and Red Sox (+200) as the only two teams worth considering in this race.

MLB AL East Outright Prediction

BOSTON RED SOX TO WIN THE AL EAST @+200

Although the Baltimore Orioles has held the division lead for the majority of the first half of the season, I do not believe they will be able to continue their HR prowess post-All Star break. The Orioles own the lead in the AL East thanks to a league-high 128 HR’s (as of July 4th) and a tremendous 31-13 SU record at home. It’s tough for a team to keep up that kind of power over the course of the season and with the way the Orioles lineup is built – lots of HR power but also lots of strikeouts and pop-outs – seeing them slide out of top spot in the division by year’s end shouldn’t be too surprising.

The Boston Red Sox have some pitching concerns that have been growing more serious in recent weeks, but they’ve got the money and prospects to solve those concerns by the trade deadline. They also have much better indicators (+51 run differential) for wins than the Orioles do and there numbers actually suggest that the Red Sox have actually under-performed a bit in this 1st half. A lot of that disappointment can be attributed to their pitching woes, but this team can slug with the best of them and have a much more balanced lineup than any other AL East rival.

Boston is less dependent on the HR ball when comparing them to Baltimore, and that’s how teams win games down the stretch. In fact, as of this writing (July 4th), Boston is miles ahead of any other team in all of baseball in hits (834) and doubles (197). Those kind of numbers over a large sample size are too hard to ignore, especially when the Orioles have 75 fewer hits and 38 fewer doubles over that same span.

Boston’s got all the talent up and down their roster to claim the 2016 AL East, and once they figure out their pitching woes (which they will via trade or improved play from current guys), this team could end up running away with the division by mid-September.

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Away Score Home Money Line
Monday 20 June
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 3 - 1 Philadelphia Phill. +110 -118 Odds
FT San Francisco Gian. 0 - 1 Pittsburgh Pirates -161 +140 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 4 - 7 Cleveland Indians +105 -125 Odds
FT Colorado Rockies 5 - 3 Miami Marlins +100 -115 Odds
AEI Chicago White Sox 3 - 1 Boston Red Sox +190 -222 Odds
AEI Seattle Mariners 7 - 8 Detroit Tigers -141 +125 Odds
FT St. Louis Cardinals 3 - 2 Chicago Cubs +140 -161 Odds
FT Baltimore Orioles 3 - 4 Texas Rangers -110 -110 Odds
FT Los Angeles Angels 7 - 10 Houston Astros +130 -149 Odds
FT Washington Nationa. 1 - 4 Los Angeles Dodgers +275 -120 Odds
Tuesday 21 June
FT Colorado Rockies 8 - 4 New York Yankees +150 -167 Odds
FT San Diego Padres 10 - 7 Baltimore Orioles +165 -172 Odds
FT San Francisco Gian. 15 - 4 Pittsburgh Pirates -192 +170 Odds
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 4 - 2 Toronto Blue Jays +170 -192 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 0 - 6 Cleveland Indians +160 -175 Odds
AEI Atlanta Braves 3 - 2 Miami Marlins +250 -263 Odds
FT Chicago White Sox 3 - 1 Boston Red Sox -110 -110 Odds
FT Kansas City Royals 1 - 2 New York Mets +125 -141 Odds
FT Seattle Mariners 2 - 4 Detroit Tigers +115 -135 Odds
FT Cincinnati Reds 8 - 2 Texas Rangers +175 -200 Odds
FT St. Louis Cardinals 4 - 3 Chicago Cubs +125 -145 Odds
FT Los Angeles Angels 2 - 3 Houston Astros +145 -164 Odds
FT Philadelphia Phill. 10 - 14 Minnesota Twins +120 -141 Odds
FT Milwaukee Brewers 3 - 5 Oakland Athletics +145 -164 Odds
FT Washington Nationa. 2 - 3 Los Angeles Dodgers +120 -141 Odds
Wednesday 22 June
FT Atlanta Braves 0 - 3 Miami Marlins +157 -156 Odds
FT Colorado Rockies 8 - 9 New York Yankees +126 -130 Odds
FT Kansas City Royals 3 - 4 New York Mets +142 -149 Odds
FT Los Angeles Angels 2 - 3 Houston Astros +127 -135 Odds
FT St. Louis Cardinals 7 - 2 Chicago Cubs +225 -233 Odds
FT Milwaukee Brewers 4 - 2 Oakland Athletics +117 -125 Odds
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 2 - 5 Toronto Blue Jays +150 -167 Odds
FT San Francisco Gian. 7 - 6 Pittsburgh Pirates +100 -115 Odds
FT San Diego Padres 2 - 7 Baltimore Orioles +155 -161 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 1 - 6 Cleveland Indians +110 -130 Odds
FT Chicago White Sox 8 - 6 Boston Red Sox +100 -120 Odds
FT Seattle Mariners 1 - 5 Detroit Tigers +110 -130 Odds
FT Cincinnati Reds 4 - 6 Texas Rangers +200 -233 Odds
FT Philadelphia Phill. 5 - 6 Minnesota Twins +152 -159 Odds
FT Washington Nationa. 3 - 4 Los Angeles Dodgers +120 -128 Odds
Thursday 23 June
FT San Francisco Gian. 5 - 3 Pittsburgh Pirates +132 -141 Odds
AEI Seattle Mariners 4 - 5 Detroit Tigers +126 -130 Odds
FT Philadelphia Phill. 7 - 3 Minnesota Twins +136 -137 Odds
AEI Chicago White Sox 7 - 8 Boston Red Sox +220 -233 Odds
FT New York Mets 3 - 4 Atlanta Braves -161 +140 Odds
FT Chicago Cubs 2 - 4 Miami Marlins -172 +160 Odds
FT San Diego Padres 7 - 4 Cincinnati Reds -116 +100 Odds
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 7 - 6 Colorado Rockies -167 +150 Odds
FT Oakland Athletics 5 - 4 Los Angeles Angels +125 -145 Odds
Friday 24 June
FT Minnesota Twins 3 - 5 New York Yankees +175 -208 Odds
FT Los Angeles Dodgers 6 - 8 Pittsburgh Pirates +110 -120 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 3 - 6 Baltimore Orioles +135 -149 Odds
FT Chicago Cubs 5 - 4 Miami Marlins -135 +120 Odds
FT San Diego Padres 13 - 4 Cincinnati Reds +115 -125 Odds
FT Cleveland Indians 7 - 5 Detroit Tigers -115 -105 Odds
FT New York Mets 8 - 6 Atlanta Braves -213 +180 Odds
FT Boston Red Sox 8 - 7 Texas Rangers -200 +175 Odds
FT Toronto Blue Jays 2 - 3 Chicago White Sox -167 +150 Odds
FT Washington Nationa. 3 - 5 Milwaukee Brewers -175 +165 Odds
FT Houston Astros 13 - 4 Kansas City Royals -135 +115 Odds
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 10 - 9 Colorado Rockies +120 -130 Odds
FT Oakland Athletics 7 - 4 Los Angeles Angels +143 -149 Odds
FT St. Louis Cardinals 3 - 4 Seattle Mariners -115 +108 Odds
FT Philadelphia Phill. 4 - 5 San Francisco Gian. +172 -182 Odds
Saturday 25 June
FT Minnesota Twins 1 - 2 New York Yankees +184 -196 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 0 - 5 Baltimore Orioles +153 -156 Odds
FT Toronto Blue Jays 10 - 8 Chicago White Sox -116 +110 Odds
FT Chicago Cubs 6 - 9 Miami Marlins -185 +185 Odds
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 6 - 11 Colorado Rockies +123 -125 Odds
FT San Diego Padres 3 - 0 Cincinnati Reds -143 +138 Odds
FT Cleveland Indians 6 - 0 Detroit Tigers -132 +126 Odds
FT Washington Nationa. 5 - 6 Milwaukee Brewers -137 +135 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 6 - 8 Baltimore Orioles +141 -145 Odds
FT Houston Astros 13 - 5 Kansas City Royals -127 +121 Odds
AEI New York Mets 1 - 0 Atlanta Braves -141 +135 Odds
FT Los Angeles Dodgers 1 - 6 Pittsburgh Pirates -145 +136 Odds
FT Boston Red Sox 3 - 10 Texas Rangers -119 +110 Odds
FT Philadelphia Phill. 3 - 2 San Francisco Gian. +255 -278 Odds
FT Oakland Athletics 7 - 3 Los Angeles Angels +134 -145 Odds
FT St. Louis Cardinals 4 - 5 Seattle Mariners +119 -125 Odds
Sunday 26 June
FT Minnesota Twins 7 - 1 New York Yankees +168 -179 Odds
FT Chicago Cubs 1 - 6 Miami Marlins +141 -143 Odds
FT San Diego Padres 0 - 3 Cincinnati Reds +125 -130 Odds
FT Cleveland Indians 9 - 3 Detroit Tigers +127 -137 Odds
FT New York Mets 2 - 5 Atlanta Braves -118 +113 Odds
FT Tampa Bay Rays 5 - 12 Baltimore Orioles +120 -128 Odds
FT Toronto Blue Jays 2 - 5 Chicago White Sox +105 -118 Odds
FT Washington Nationa. 3 - 2 Milwaukee Brewers -135 +130 Odds
FT Houston Astros 1 - 6 Kansas City Royals -108 +102 Odds
FT Boston Red Sox 2 - 6 Texas Rangers +105 -125 Odds
FT Oakland Athletics 6 - 7 Los Angeles Angels +100 -111 Odds
FT Philadelphia Phill. 7 - 8 San Francisco Gian. +205 -217 Odds
FT St. Louis Cardinals 11 - 6 Seattle Mariners +114 -122 Odds
FT Arizona Diamondbac. 7 - 9 Colorado Rockies +115 -135 Odds
FT Los Angeles Dodgers 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Pirates -278 +240 Odds

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